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A Bayesian framework to evaluate non-inferiority in randomised controlled trials of uncommon conditions

Victoria R. Cornelius, Jack Elkes, Ian R. White, Rebecca M. Turner, Michelle Clements, Matteo Quartagno, Conor D. Tweed, Sejal Saglani, Suzie Cro

This paper proposes using the posterior probability of noninferiority to demonstrate the value of undertaking an NI trial using a credible NI margin. A five-part Bayesian framework is described: the data generation/analysis model; maximum feasible sample size; different potential outcomes; primary NI margin; and plausible priors.

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