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Tools to help patients and other stakeholders’ input into choice of intercurrent event strategy for estimands in randomised trials

Joanna Hindley, Charlotte Hartley, Jennifer Hellier, Kate Sturgeon, Sophie Greenwood, Ian Newsome, Katherine Barrett, Debs Smith, Tra My Pham, Dongquan Bi, Beatriz Goulao, Suzie Cro and Brennan C. Kahan

This article describes three tools that could facilitate conversations between researchers and patients and other stakeholders about the choice of intercurrent event strategy for estimands: (i) a video explaining the concept of an estimand and the five different ways that intercurrent events can be incorporated into the estimand definition; (ii) an infographic outlining these five strategies; and (iii) an editable PowerPoint slide which can be completed with trial-specific details to facilitate conversations around choice of estimand for a particular trial.

Trials

Publication Date:

May 8, 2026

The use of Bayesian methods for the analysis of Studies Within A Trial: a proof-of-concept case study

Suzie Cro, Zhangyi He, Daphne Babalis, Laurent Billot

This proof-of-concept study re-analysed two previous SWATs using Bayesian methods and ACCEPT analyses. It identified Bayesian methods and ACCEPT analyses offer solutions to challenges experienced in the analysis and interpretation of SWATs.

Trials

Publication Date:

Apr 24, 2026

What Makes an Estimand Useful? Guidance on the Choice of Intercurrent Event Strategies

Brennan C. Kahan, Fan Li, Michael O. Harhay, Suzie Cro

This article provides an approach for selecting intercurrent event strategies, which systematically considers the trade-off between relevance (whether it addresses a useful question) and reliability (the ability to be estimated such that stakeholders can have confidence in the results) of each strategy in order to identify those that can be used to robustly inform decision-making.

Statistics in Medicine

Publication Date:

Mar 18, 2026

Investigating estimand considerations in adaptive trials: a systematic review

Fran Piazza, Hannah Wallace, Rachel Phillips, Suzie Cro, Zohra Zenasni

This review identifies the current application of the estimand framework specifically to trials with an adaptive design.

Trials

Publication Date:

Feb 6, 2026

Supporting public involvement in defining estimands: a practical tool accessibly explaining the five key attributes of an estimand

Suzie Cro, Eleanor Van Vogt, Nikki Totton, Ellen Lee, Jo C, Paul Hellyer, Manos Kumar, Yasmin Rahman, Ania Henley

This paper describes a tool explaining the 5 attributes of an estimand, accessibly referred to as the 5 pillars of the research question. This was co-developed for researchers and public partners to use to facilitate the involvement of public partners in devising estimands.

Trials

Publication Date:

Oct 27, 2025

A Bayesian framework to evaluate non-inferiority in randomised controlled trials of uncommon conditions

Victoria R. Cornelius, Jack Elkes, Ian R. White, Rebecca M. Turner, Michelle Clements, Matteo Quartagno, Conor D. Tweed, Sejal Saglani, Suzie Cro

This paper proposes using the posterior probability of noninferiority to demonstrate the value of undertaking an NI trial using a credible NI margin. A five-part Bayesian framework is described: the data generation/analysis model; maximum feasible sample size; different potential outcomes; primary NI margin; and plausible priors.

Journal of Clinical Epidemiology

Publication Date:

Sep 23, 2025

Are estimands being correctly used? A review of UK research protocols

Timothy P. Clark, Richard H. Wicentowski, Suzie Cro, Matthew R. Sydes & Brennan C. Kahan

A review of original research protocols submitted to the United Kingdom’s Health Research Authority, which oversees ethical review of clinical trials, to identify how the use of estimands has changed over time, whether trials are using estimands correctly (i.e. correctly defining the five attributes of an estimand), and which strategies are being used to handle intercurrent events.

Trials

Publication Date:

Aug 26, 2025

Incorporation of patient and public involvement in statistical methodology research: summary of workshop proceedings

Aiden Smith, Hannah Worboys, Samina Begum, Derrick Bennett, Jonathan Broomfield, Suzie Cro, Laura Evans-Hill, Justin Greenwood, Ania Henley, Mary Mancini, Kara-Louise Royle, Helen Saul, Jamie Sergeant, Derek Stewart, Freya Tyrer, James Wason, Christopher Yau, Laura J. Gray

Patient and Public Involvement (PPI) is well-established in applied health research but remains under utilised in statistical methodology research due to perceived irrelevance and communication challenges. This paper summarises a one-day workshop held in February 2024 in Leicester, organised by the University of Leicester and the NIHR Statistics Group, aimed at addressing barriers to meaningful PPI in statistical methodology.

Statistics in Medicine

Publication Date:

Jul 15, 2025

Trials special series - the collection, analysis and reporting of adverse events in randomised controlled trials

Rachel Phillips, Victoria Cornelius

In a special series, Trials invited submissions that related to the collection, analysis and reporting of adverse events in clinical trials. To date twelve articles have been published in the series. In this editorial, we summarise each of these submissions and briefly discuss the implications on applied clinical trials and future methodological research.

Trials

Publication Date:

May 12, 2025

Exploring the effect of COVID-19 restrictions on the Social Functioning Scale in a clinical trial of Antipsychotic Reduction: using multiple imputation to target a hypothetical estimand

Louise Marston, Joanna Moncrieff, Stefan Priebe, Suzie Cro, Victoria R. Cornelius

Many trials are affected by unforeseen events after recruitment has commenced. The aim of this study is to explore a hypothetical strategy for dealing with an intercurrent event that occurred during trial follow-up; COVID-19 restrictions. Analysis was conducted using multiple imputation.

Journal of Clinical Epidemiology

Publication Date:

Mar 6, 2025

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